Business in Ukraine loses optimism: fresh NBU survey for August

September in Ukraine traditionally begins with the Day of Knowledge, and for economists — with another batch of data from the National Bank. On September 1, the regulator published the results of its monthly business survey. And frankly, the numbers are concerning.

For international investors and economic observers, this survey is a key indicator of how Ukrainian businesses are weathering the war. The drop below 50 is a warning sign, but not a catastrophe.

In August, businesses assessed their performance with restraint — and that’s putting it mildly. The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) fell below the neutral 50-point mark. In August, it stood at 48.3. For comparison: in July it was 50.1, and a year ago, in August 2025 — 49.0. The trend is hardly encouraging.

What lies behind these numbers? Let’s break it down. According to the NBU website, the survey was conducted from August 4 to 21, involving 586 enterprises. And the picture it paints reflects all the challenges Ukrainian businesses are facing right now.

What’s weighing on businesses

The list of problems hasn’t changed much over recent months, but their weight has become more tangible. Enterprises complain about:

• large-scale destruction of production facilities and warehouses — the war continues to destroy the economy before our very eyes;
• blockade of seaports — hitting exports and imports, disrupting supply chains;
• high fuel prices, increasing costs for already struggling logistics;
• shortage of skilled workers — a problem that only worsens with each passing month.

That’s the answer to why entrepreneurs are looking to the future without their former enthusiasm.

But there is some positive news

It wouldn’t be fair to say that businesses have completely sunk into depression. Some factors continue to offer hope. Among them: sustained consumer demand (people are buying, though cautiously), international financial support, government funding for infrastructure and road repairs, and a stable energy situation. Yes, there are no large-scale blackouts right now, and that’s already a major achievement. And of course, the seasonal factor — summer has always been a time of increased activity, especially in construction and related industries.

How sectors fared in August

Surprisingly, the best performers were construction companies. Their sectoral index stands at 50.7. Yes, it’s down from July’s 54.2 and last August’s 54.0, but still above the neutral level. Government funding keeps construction afloat — roads and infrastructure are being rebuilt, generating orders. Plus seasonality and steady domestic demand. Construction companies even expect increased material purchases and new orders, though optimism has waned.

Industry, however, is the main underperformer. Its index plummeted to 47.3. In July it was 50.7, last August — 48.7. Industrialists expect production volumes to decline, and orders (both domestic and export) to fall. The reasons are the same: destroyed capacity, logistics problems, and a lack of people. The situation is serious, and it is a direct consequence of the war.

Trade is also in negative territory — 47.5. That’s below July’s 50.8 and August 2025’s 51.8. Traders are suffering from destroyed warehouses and logistics centers, and high fuel prices. They expect lower turnover and procurement, while margins continue to shrink.

Services are holding up slightly better — 49.5. That’s up from July (48.8) and noticeably better than a year ago (47.0). Services are supported by sustained domestic demand, despite rising costs due to disrupted logistics and labor shortages. There are positive expectations for new orders, which is already a good sign.

Prices will rise

Almost all sectors expect procurement prices and prices for their products to accelerate. The exception is construction, where companies hope for a slight slowdown. So inflationary pressures haven’t gone away, and businesses are bracing for prices to creep up. This is another worrying signal.

Labor — the most painful issue

The labor market situation remains difficult. Only construction companies plan to maintain or increase their workforce. All other sectors expect staff reductions. Industry is the worst hit. The shortage of skilled labor is becoming chronic, and this is not a problem that can be solved simply by raising wages. Systemic changes are needed, but these are hard to implement during wartime.

Who took part in the survey

The participant structure was standard: 43.7% — industry, 25.9% — services, 24.6% — trade, 5.8% — construction. Large businesses — 30.9%, medium — 29.2%, small — 39.9%. About one-third of enterprises are engaged in foreign economic activity, but almost 40% operate only on the domestic market.

What this means

The August survey is a symptom, not a diagnosis. Business has dipped but not collapsed. The economy continues to function, but at its limits. War, destruction, labor shortages, and logistics problems create a heavy backdrop that weighs on expectations.

However, there are rays of hope: construction holds up, services are gradually recovering, consumer demand is not collapsing. The National Bank was right to keep its key rate at 15% in March — inflation risks have not disappeared, and the regulator stands ready to tighten policy if the situation worsens.

The main takeaway: Ukrainian business is adapting, but it is exhausted. And without an end to the war, it is too early to talk about a full recovery. The next survey — for September — will be published in October. It will be interesting to see if the trend changes.

Survey results reflect only the opinions of respondents — business managers — not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine. The full survey results are available in the “Monthly Business Surveys” section on the official NBU website.