Business maintains positive expectations: NBU’s June survey shows resilience, but there are nuances

July 01, 2026 – The National Bank of Ukraine today published the results of its monthly business survey. The main news: for the fourth time in a row, businesses rate their performance positively. With caveats, considering all risks, but overall – they are holding on and even showing moderate optimism.

For international investors and economic observers, this survey is a key indicator of how Ukraine’s private sector is weathering the war. The fact that businesses remain optimistic for the fourth consecutive month sends a strong signal to global markets.

According to National Bank data, the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) for June stood at 50.4. This is slightly below May’s reading of 52.1, but remains above the neutral 50-point mark. Compared to the same period last year – in June 2025 it was exactly 50.0.

Not a heroic figure, admittedly, but under conditions where the economy is fighting as hard as the military, this is already a victory. Businesses have learned to breathe in thin air.

What’s boosting business sentiment?

Business optimism, surprisingly, has very tangible reasons. The list reads almost like a wish list for normal life:

• energy sector stabilization – blackouts persist, but the system holds, and businesses have adapted to operating under these conditions;
• falling fuel prices – slow but steady, easing logistics and reducing operating costs;
• sustained consumer demand – people keep buying despite the difficult times;
• external financial support – funds are reaching the real economy.

In short, businesses are living not on promises, but on concrete improvements. Small, local, but real.

But there’s a fly in the ointment

Companies continue to complain about destroyed production capacities and damaged logistics infrastructure. Labor costs are rising – skilled workers are in critically short supply, and employees are dictating terms. Meanwhile, inflation and exchange rate expectations have begun to tick up – a signal the NBU should watch carefully.

So, on one side – a glimmer of hope. On the other – the heavy burden of problems pulling things down. Balancing between the two is becoming the true art of Ukrainian management.

Construction – the heroes of our time

The highest reading among all sectors came from construction – 54.5. This is the fourth consecutive month they’ve led the pack. Favorable weather, government funding for road repairs, and infrastructure reconstruction are all contributing factors.

Construction companies, unlike many others, are looking to the future with confidence, expecting more orders, more material purchases, and even hiring new staff.

Industry – walking a tightrope

Industry came in at exactly 50.0 – the neutral level. Neither growth nor decline. Production holds at last month’s levels, but without significant expansion. The worrying sign: industrialists expect new export orders to decrease.

A tangle of issues is at play here: logistics, border blockades, external economic conditions, exchange rates. Industrialists are the most cautious pessimists in this survey.

Trade bounces back

Last month, trade dipped into slight negative territory (49.6), but in June it rebounded to 50.6. Lower fuel prices, ample supply of goods, and sustained demand are the three pillars supporting this sector.

Trading companies are more optimistic about turnover than a month ago and are even planning to increase purchases of goods for resale.

Services – slow but steady

The services sector has now maintained optimism for four consecutive months, with an index of 50.2. Stable energy grid performance, streamlined logistics, and falling fuel prices all contribute to companies feeling more confident than last year.

For comparison, in June 2025, the services sector index was 48.3 – below neutral. In a year, they’ve gained nearly two points. It may not seem like much, but the trend is encouraging.

Labor market – the biggest headache

This is perhaps the most concerning point. The only sector with positive hiring expectations is construction. All other industries are planning staff reductions. Industry is worst off – the skills shortage there is particularly acute.

Paradox: businesses want to grow but can’t find the people. This isn’t just a wage problem. It’s about mobilization, migration, and the demographic gap. Solutions will have to come after the war, but we need to start thinking now.

Who took part?

The June survey, conducted from June 3-22, covered 587 enterprises. Breakdown by sector:

• 45.1% – industry;
• 25.9% – services;
• 23.0% – trade;
• 6.0% – construction.

By size: 32% large, 29% medium, 39% small enterprises. About a third of companies are both exporters and importers, another 9.5% export only, 17.5% import only, and nearly 40% have no foreign economic activity at all.

What does it all mean?

The bottom line: business is adapting. Despite war, destruction, labor shortages, and currency risks, enterprises keep operating and even looking to the future with moderate optimism.

Construction is becoming the driver of recovery. Industry holds the line at neutral. Trade and services are slowly reviving.

The main challenge is people. This cannot be solved just by raising wages. It requires systemic state policy: vocational education, retraining, demographic support.

But the fact remains: Ukrainian business is surviving and even growing under conditions that would have forced many European companies to shut down long ago. That is the key takeaway from the NBU’s June survey.

The results of the next survey (for July 2026) will be published on the first working day of August. Let’s see if anything changes.

Survey results reflect only the opinions of respondents – business managers – not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine. The full survey results are available in the “Monthly Business Surveys” section on the official NBU website.