Crypto Realism Dawns: Bullish CEO Tom Farley Predicts Wave of M&As and Industry Shakeout

February 9, 2026, USA. Sometimes, words spoken by one person offstage carry more weight than loud pronouncements from dozens of conferences. An interview with Bullish crypto exchange CEO Tom Farley on CNBC is just such a case. Against the backdrop of a prolonged “crypto winter,” with prices fluctuating without a clear trend and investors tired of waiting for the next “hype,” his forecast sounds not like a guess but like a diagnosis from an experienced doctor who has seen this disease before. The prescription is simple but harsh: in the coming years, the crypto industry will not expand outward but will contract, consolidate, and mature through a painful process of consolidation.

Farley is not some enthusiastic blogger. He is a person with the background of running the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), who several years ago made a deliberate bet on digital assets. Now he looks at our noisy, ambitious, but sometimes naive market through the eyes of a traditional finance veteran. And he sees familiar patterns.

“I have observed similar processes while working in the exchange sector, where consolidation was constant and large-scale,”

he stated. Simply put, childhood is over. Adult life is beginning with its jungle laws: the big eat the small, and those without a strong business model leave the market. For global investors, this underscores a shift towards maturity, where fundamental analysis and sustainable unit economics, familiar from traditional tech sectors, will become paramount in crypto asset evaluation.

Why “Mergers and Acquisitions Should Have Started Earlier”

According to Farley, the digital asset market has long been ripe for a reboot. Excessive optimism, fueled by easy money in the era of low rates, froze natural selection. Many projects survived not because they created real value or had a working economy, but because investors believed in the “next Bitcoin” or an “Ethereum killer.” Now, as noted in the interview, a sobering up has occurred. Teams face a simple but brutal question: besides an ambitious white paper and a loud name, do they have a sustainable business model?

“In the short term, many crypto projects will face the realization that they lack a sustainable business model and have only a product,”

stated the head of Bullish. And the ongoing market decline (or its sluggish consolidation at low levels) acts as an additional catalyst for this cleanup. When the easy inflow of capital stops, it becomes clear who really knows how to swim.

Two Sides of the Same Coin: What the Consolidation Wave Brings

Farley does not paint rosy pictures. He speaks directly about the controversial consequences.

The positive side: the market will become “significantly less fragmented.” This is good for everyone. For investors, the risk of stumbling upon an outright adventure will decrease. For regulators, it will be easier to deal with a few large, transparent players rather than a thousand startups in a gray zone. For the entire industry, the concentration of capital and talent in strong hands will accelerate the creation of truly scalable and useful products, not momentary “tokens for tokens.”

The negative side: the process will be painful. “Mass layoffs and infrastructure disruptions during the merger and business closure phase” is not an abstraction. These are real people and projects. The recent decision by crypto exchange Gemini to cut staff by 25% and exit the EU, UK, and Australian markets is just the first harbinger of this wave. Others will follow.

What Does This Mean for the Ukrainian Crypto Community and Investors?

Ukraine, with its powerful pool of IT and fintech specialists, has always been part of the global crypto industry. Farley’s forecast is both a warning and an opportunity.

Warning for local startups: the time for experiments “on enthusiasm” is ending. If your project does not have a clear path to profitability and a competitive advantage, the chances of being acquired (or simply shut down) in the next couple of years increase sharply.

Opportunity for strong players and investors: the consolidation wave will create a chance to buy promising technologies and teams at a more adequate price. For Ukrainian funds or established IT companies that have so far viewed the crypto sector with caution, this could be an entry point.

Overall, Tom Farley’s diagnosis sounds pessimistic only at first glance. In reality, it is a forecast for recovery. An industry that has survived several cycles of hype and disappointment is finally forced to focus not on marketing but on business. And this, ultimately, is the best news for those who believe in blockchain technology, not speculative bubbles. Winter is a time not only for dormancy but also for strengthening roots. It seems the crypto industry has understood this.