Fear of Escalation and Social Anxiety: How the Situation in Ukraine is Influencing Homebuyer Decisions in Poland

The situation in Ukraine is not just a news backdrop but a concrete economic factor for countries in the region. This is particularly evident in the real estate market of Poland – Ukraine’s key partner.

A new study commissioned by one of Poland’s leading real estate portals, nieruchomosci-online.pl, provides clear figures confirming that geopolitical anxiety caused by the war directly affects the psychology and wallet of the Polish homebuyer.

Anxiety in Numbers: 41% Fear War Expansion, 70% Expect Rising Social Tension

According to the published results of the study “To my. Polacy o nieruchomościach — IV kwartał 2025,” conducted among 1013 adult Poles, 41% of respondents fear the war in Ukraine expanding to other countries in the region. At the same time, almost a quarter (24%) have no clear opinion, which only intensifies the overall atmosphere of uncertainty.

Concurrently, 70% of Poles expect increased social divisions and tension within Poland itself in 2026. This “dual anxiety” – external and internal – creates a complex psychological backdrop for making long-term financial commitments, such as taking out a mortgage.

Not Cancellation, but Caution: How Buyer Behavior is Changing

Experts emphasize that this is not about a collapse in demand, but a qualitative transformation of it.

“The current war is not blocking market demand, but it is influencing sentiment. It acts as a backdrop that increases caution and the tendency for more thorough risk calculation,”

explains Rafał Bieńkowski, an analytics expert at the nieruchomosci-online.pl portal.

In practice, as the analyst notes, this manifests in:

• Postponing Decisions: Potential buyers are more likely to take a “time-out” to observe the situation.
• Choosing Safer Financial Models: Preference is given to loans with a higher down payment or shorter term to reduce debt burden.
• Pragmatic Choice of Property: Smaller, more budget-friendly housing that is easier to maintain in case of economic shocks may become a priority.

“When the sense of uncertainty grows, greater caution naturally appears,”

summarizes Bieńkowski.

Portrait of Anxiety: Older Generation More Pessimistic

The study revealed a clear demographic divide. Fear of conflict expansion is most pronounced among Poles over 55 years old (47%), while among youth aged 18-24 it is almost 20 percentage points lower (29%). A similar gap is observed in expectations of social upheaval: among the “55+” group, 80% are pessimists, compared to 60% among Poles under 34.

At the same time, geographical factors play almost no role: concerns are shared equally by residents of large cities and rural areas.

What This Means for Ukrainian Business and Investors

For Ukrainian entrepreneurs considering the Polish real estate market (both for investment and related to building materials, services), this data is an important signal.

1. Understanding the Client: The consumer in Poland has become hyper-sensitive to risks. Successful offerings must emphasize stability, security, and financial predictability.
2. Changing Trends: Demand may grow in the rental segment (as a more flexible alternative to purchase) and for mid- and low-price category properties.
3. The Cost of Credit Factor: Caution in society may restrain a sharp rise in interest rates, as the regulator is keen not to “overload” an already nervous market.
4. Indirect Impact on Ukraine: The stability of the Polish economy and real estate market is critically important for Ukrainian exports and for the millions of Ukrainians living and working in Poland. Their financial well-being also depends on the local economic conditions. For foreign investors active in Central and Eastern Europe, Poland’s resilience underscores its role as a regional economic anchor, despite proximity to conflict. Polish market trends often serve as a leading indicator for neighboring economies.

Thus, the Ukrainian factor, while remaining a source of risk, is also making the Polish market more rational and calculated. And in such a market, those who best calculate not only profit but also risks come out on top.