Seasonal Cooling: Business Activity Index Falls to 41.3 Points in January — NBU Data

The Business Expectations Index (BEI) in January 2026 fell to 41.3 points from 49.2 in December, returning to negative territory. Seasonality, energy issues, and logistical difficulties have made companies in all sectors except industry more pessimistic. However, the situation looks slightly better compared to January 2025.

The mood of Ukrainian businesses traditionally worsened in the first month of the year. According to the results of the monthly survey by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the key barometer of the business climate — the BEI — once again dropped below the 50-point mark, which separates positive and negative expectations. The drop of almost 8 points from December is associated with a seasonal decline in economic activity.

Main Challenges: Energy, Logistics, and Labor

Besides seasonality, a whole range of problems put pressure on the index dynamics in January:

• increased attacks on energy and logistics infrastructure;
• shortage of energy resources and rising costs of alternative power sources;
• logistical problems;
• shortage of qualified specialists;
• strengthening of exchange rate expectations (expectation of hryvnia devaluation).

The few positive factors remained inflows of international financial aid and slowing inflation.

“In January 2026, the BEI was 41.3 compared to 49.2 in December 2025, but was slightly higher than the level in January 2025 (41.0),”

the NBU states.

Sectoral Picture: Who Suffered the Most?

Construction (37.9) — the most pessimistic sector due to difficult weather conditions and rising costs due to power outages. Construction companies expect a decrease in work volumes and material purchases.

Trade (40.0) — after 10 months of positive expectations, it sharply lowered its assessments due to the traditional January downturn and electricity shortages. Companies expect a reduction in turnover and inventories.

Services (42.1) — the sector lowered its assessments due to rising wage and heating costs, as well as logistical difficulties. A decrease in the volume of services provided and new orders is expected.

Industry (41.7) — although the sector worsened its assessments due to destruction of capacity, energy shortages, and labor issues, its pessimism turned out to be lower than in January 2025 (42.0). Industrialists expect a decrease in production and new orders, including export ones.

Alarming Trends: Prices, Wages, and Employment

Almost all respondents expect further price increases for their products and services against the backdrop of accelerating growth in purchase prices.

The labor market situation has become less stable. For the first time in several months, managers of companies in all sectors are inclined to reduce the total number of employees, and most significantly — in industry. This is an important signal about a possible rise in unemployment in the coming months.

Conclusions: A Difficult Start to a Difficult Year

The NBU data confirms that the year 2026 for the Ukrainian economy has begun in challenge mode. Business is under pressure from both military factors (attacks on infrastructure) and classic economic problems (cost inflation, labor shortages). The conclusions of the country’s central bank are also confirmed by the Ukrainian companies I was able to discuss this issue with while preparing this material.

Cautious optimism is inspired only by the fact that compared to the same period last year, the situation in three of the four sectors (construction, trade, services) looks slightly better. This may indicate a gradual adaptation of businesses to operating under constant stress. However, to reverse the negative trend and bring the index back into positive territory, not only the efforts of the companies themselves will be required, but also substantial support from the state in the form of stable energy supply, protection of logistics, and macroeconomic stability.

594 enterprises were surveyed. Detailed survey results are available on the NBU website in the “Publications” section.

For international partners: The NBU’s monthly survey serves as a crucial leading indicator for the resilience of Ukraine’s private sector. Understanding these pressures is key for assessing supply chain risks and partnership viability in 2026.